AFCON has always been a tournament where favourites meet unpredictability. The glamour of established powers is undeniable, but it's the underdogs who often provide the tournament's most memorable chapters, breakout stars, and stories that linger long after the final whistle. For AFCON 2025 in Morocco, expect a crop of teams and individuals who will turn the odds into opportunities. Here are the underdog narratives we think could define the tournament's tactical wildcards, resilient squads, and personalities who could change the story.

Cape Verde: Small nation, giant heart

Cape Verde keeps reappearing as Africa's pleasant surprise. Limited population, huge passion — that combination has produced compact, disciplined sides capable of upsetting bigger nations. Their players often blend Portuguese technical schooling with island grit, and many ply their trade in competitive European leagues. At AFCON 2025 they are likely be organised, hard to break down and dangerous on the counter. If their coach gets the balance right between defence and pacey wide play, Cape Verde can squeeze past a more fancied opponent in the group stage and ride that momentum into the knockout rounds. Expect a structured midfield, close-knit defending and moments of forward ingenuity that can unsettle complacent favourites.

Equatorial Guinea: Home comforts, fearless football

Equatorial Guinea's past AFCON runs have shown they are comfortable playing the role of spoiler. They approach big matches with a fearless mentality. Compact, physical and direct. In Morocco, their experience navigating tournament pressure could pay dividends. They tend to hedge their bets on defensive solidity while waiting for moments to pounce on set pieces or counterattacks. Underdog runs are often built on discipline and a single star moment; Equatorial Guinea is the kind of side that can produce both.

Angola: Tactical discipline and rising domestic talent

Angola's football has matured quietly. A growing domestic league and more players moving abroad means their squad depth is improving. Angola may not boast household names, but they will bring tactical discipline and a physical midfield that’s tough to play through. Teams that underestimate Angola's work rate and set-piece threat do so at their peril. This is a side that can grind out results, frustrate creative teams and progress on narrow margins — the classic underdog blueprint.

Tanzania: The sleeper with a plan

Tanzania's recent investment in youth and coaching structures has begun to show. While they still lack continental pedigree, they possess a growing pool of athletic, hungry players ready to prove themselves on the big stage. A tournament like AFCON can be transformative: a single win against a higher-ranked opponent lifts belief, spurs a nation, and can push a team further than anyone predicted. Expect youthful energy, rapid transitions and a desire to make every tackle matter. If the coach fosters cohesion and the team defends smartly, Tanzania could sneak through a wobbly group.

Gambia: Courage and continental belief

The Gambia stunned many observers with their performances in recent competitions. Small population, enormous pride. Their attacking verve combined with daring transitions make them a nightmare for teams that rely on possession without penetration. They play fearlessly, often upsetting teams that misread their attacking intent. Gambia's hunger and unity give them an edge as they are never merely participants; they are fighters who can steal points and create one of the tournament's feel-good stories.

South Africa: Dark horses with pedigree and pressure

Adding South Africa to the underdog conversation might raise eyebrows. Bafana Bafana have history, resources and a passionate fanbase. Yet the label fits in a certain sense: they arrive at AFCON 2025 carrying expectation and a recent patchy run of form that makes them vulnerable. Unlike perennial favourites, South Africa are in a transitional phase, emerging talents blending with experienced pros, a coach trying to settle a best XI, and a federation eager for results. That mixture creates volatility: on their day South Africa have the technical quality, tactical flexibility and attacking options to upset top teams, but inconsistency can leave them exposed.

Why underdogs thrive at AFCON

Several factors help underdogs at AFCON: compressed schedules that reward fitness and team shape, passionate support from fans, and environments where favourites must adapt to unfamiliar atmospheres. Tactical nous is as important as technical quality, a well-drilled plan executed with conviction can outmatch individual talent. Underdogs also benefit from the psychological element. When the pressure is fully on the heavyweights, the lighter side plays with freedom. A lack of expectation is an underrated advantage.

Tactical recipes for upsets

If smaller teams are to flourish, expect a handful of recurring tactical themes: low-block defence with rapid counters, aggressive pressing that forces mistakes, clever use of set pieces, and compact midfield units that prioritise structure over flair. Coaches who adapt in-game, manage substitutions astutely, and instil belief can transform cautious squads into nightmare opponents. When discipline meets opportunity, underdogs become spoilers.

Stories that matter beyond results

The romance of an underdog isn't just in wins and losses; it's the cultural impact. A small nation's success sparks national pride, inspires investment in youth football, and gives a generation a story to tell. Players who shine can secure moves abroad, improving their domestic game in the long term. These ripple effects are part of AFCON's legacy: a surprise run doesn't end with the tournament as it begins a new chapter for a country's footballing dreams.

How fans and atmosphere amplify underdog runs

Stadium atmosphere and travelling support magnify moments of belief. Underdog victories are rarely quiet affairs as they explode in stadiums, spill into fan zones and trend across social feeds. When a small nation wins a key game, the emotional lift is immediate; players feed off it and often outperform their previous standard. Morocco's host cities will be vibrant, and the teams who win hearts early may find themselves buoyed by unexpected corners of support and viral moments that shift momentum.

Final thought: expect the unexpected

AFCON 2025 will certainly feature its stars and favourites, but the heart of the tournament lives in its surprises. From Cape Verde's counterblows to Equatorial Guinea's fearless approach, and from Tanzania's youthful hunger to The Gambia's daring attacks and yes, South Africa's high-stakes potential as the underdog stories will be the ones that capture imaginations. Keep an eye on the small teams with big plans: they remind us why African football is as unpredictable as it is irresistible. Sport Pulse ZA will be tracking these stories closely because when the underdogs bark, the whole continent listens.